Near-record-high beef prices may be leveling off or dropping slightly this fall, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Texas A&M Agricultural Economics. Despite overall high prices, fluctuations are expected to remain milder in the upcoming months, and wholesalers’ bottom lines do not necessarily mirror the trend in retail prices.
The USDA’s Cattle & Beef Market Outlook last week said a slower pace of cattle slaughter is expected.
At one of the nearest cattle auctions, Coryell County Commission Co., prices generally have ticked down from their early-summer peak, when steers under 300 pounds were selling for up to $750 per hundredweight. High-yielding slaughter cows, which sold for up to $200 cwt in Coryell County in July, were selling for 150-165 cwt. at the Aug. 19 sale there.
Two recent developments in federal policy are likely to impact domestic beef producers. The USDA was scheduled on Monday to open the port of Douglas, Arizona, for live cattle imports from Mexico. Also, President Donald Trump announced a plan to allow 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to be imported tariff-free at 25% below market prices. Aimed at lowering costs for consumers at grocery stores, a sharp rise in imports will counter one of the main factors that has led to high sale prices for producers.
The United States cattle herd has plunged to its lowest point in about 70 years amid prolonged drought in the Central Plains, and feed and fuel prices have risen steadily.
High input costs, shrinking supply and relatively steady consumer demand led ground beef prices to spike to an alltime high of $6.92 per pound earlier this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Uncooked beef steaks were averaging $13.02 per pound at that same point in spring of this year.
Wholesale prices, however, are lower for some cuts than they were at this time last year.
The wholesale price of ground beef (73%) stood at $2.88 per pound last week, unchanged from the week before but significantly lower than the $3.49 average a year ago – according to the Cattlemen’s Beef Board and National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.
Chuck, sirloin and round wholesale prices had dropped over the past year, almost across the board. Bottom sirloin, flap, boneless is averaging $7.96 for wholesalers, almost $2 lower than in the summer of 2025. On the other end of the spectrum, ribeye roll (lip-on, boneless heavy) had surged to a wholesale price of $14.03, up from $13.25 the year before.
The United States remains a net importer of beef, meaning it buys more from other countries than it exports, so the past week’s policy updates regarding imports could have a significant impact.
“We are going to produce less beef this year and next year and maybe into 2028,” David Anderson said at a recent Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course. “We can’t expand the herd in a drought, and the whole Great Plains area has been and is still dry. Expansion is going to happen slowly.”
Feeder cattle that are imported now will not be processed into beef available at stores until mid-2027, Anderson explained.
USDA for the most part echoed that sentiment in its mid-year cattle report, which showed “year-over-year tighter calf supplies for feedlot placement heading into late 2026 and early 2027. Further, the cattle report suggests cow inventories are steady with last year, while heifers for beef and dairy cow replacement grew modestly.”
Central Texas lately has been spared the extreme droughts that other regions are seeing, but as grazing conditions deteriorate in late summer, some producers may choose to thin their herds.
At Coryell County Commission, last week’s sale saw 1,043 head of cattle, 148 sellers and 54 buyers. Around the same time in August 2025, 964 cattle went to the Coryell auction, and 786 were taken in at the same point of the calendar in 2024. Both 2024 and 2025 were unusually wet years for much of Central Texas.
At Coryell Commission, last week’s volume was an increase from the previous two weekly sales, but below the July 8 peak of 1,140 head. Young choice cow-calf pair prices have remained mostly steady, but have dipped since the start of summer, when they ranged from $4,000-$5,500 per pair in mid-June.
Texas A&M’s Summer 2026 Meat Prices report summed up the beef forecast for the remainder of 2026, citing conclusions from Simon Somogyi, director of the university’s Weston Agrifood Sales Program: “Consumers continued buying beef at higher prices than expected, and the market absorbed that pressure more readily than the 2025 forecast.”